As the year draws to a close, all of us at Coastal Key Homes want to take a moment to wish you a very Merry Christmas and a joyful holiday season.

This time of year invites reflection - on the milestones we’ve reached, the challenges we’ve navigated, and, most importantly, the people who made it all meaningful. Whether you bought your first home, made a strategic move, invested in your future, or simply stayed curious about the market this year, we are grateful to have been part of your journey.

Real estate is ultimately about more than properties and transactions. It’s about homes, communities, and the lives built within them. We are fortunate to work in a profession that allows us to help people lay down roots, create stability, and move confidently into their next chapter.

As you spend time with family and friends over the holidays, we hope your days are filled with warmth, rest, and connection. May the season bring clarity, gratitude, and excitement for what lies ahead in the new year.

From our Coastal Key Homes family to yours - thank you for your trust and support. We look forward to continuing to serve our community with integrity, insight, and care in the year ahead.

Wishing you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a prosperous New Year.

Warm regards,
Coastal Key Homes

Executive Summary

As we close out another month in the BC housing market, conditions continue to reflect a slow but deliberate recalibration rather than a sharp correction or rebound. Buyer confidence is gradually rebuilding, sellers are becoming more realistic on pricing, and the Bank of Canada’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady reinforces a sense of stability after an extended period of uncertainty.

This update breaks down what we are seeing on the ground across Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, how the Bank of Canada’s stance impacts buyers and sellers, and what to watch as we head into the next quarter.

Bank of Canada: Rates Held Steady

The Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its policy rate signals a clear shift in tone from aggressive inflation fighting to cautious economic stewardship. While rate cuts have not yet begun, the pause itself is meaningful.

Why this matters:

• Borrowing costs are no longer rising, allowing buyers to plan with greater certainty.

• Fixed-rate mortgages have already been pricing in future easing, which has helped stabilize monthly payments.

• The risk of additional shock to housing affordability has materially decreased.

For homeowners, this pause reduces refinancing anxiety. For buyers, it marks the first phase of a more navigable financing environment—even if affordability remains stretched by historical standards.

BC Housing Market Snapshot

Across much of BC, and particularly in Metro Vancouver:

• Sales activity is improving modestly compared to earlier in the year, though still below long-term averages.

• Inventory levels remain elevated in some segments, giving buyers more choice and leverage than they have had in years.

• Pricing is largely flat, with micro-markets diverging based on product type, location, and condition.

Well-located, turnkey homes continue to attract strong interest, while properties that are overpriced or require significant updates are spending more time on market.

Buyer Behaviour: Cautious but Engaged

Buyers are active, informed, and patient.

Common themes we are seeing:

• Conditional offers are back as the norm, not the exception.

• Negotiations are more balanced, particularly on price, completion dates, and inclusions.

• Many buyers are positioning themselves now, anticipating rate cuts later in the year or early next year.

This environment rewards preparation. Buyers with financing lined up and clear criteria are best positioned to act decisively when the right opportunity appears.

Seller Behaviour: Realism Is Key

Sellers who are pricing strategically are seeing results. Those anchored to peak-market expectations are often facing longer days on market and price adjustments.

Successful listings today share a few traits:

• Accurate pricing based on current, not historical, comparables.

• Strong presentation, staging, and professional marketing.

• Flexibility around terms to attract a wider buyer pool.

The market is no longer forgiving of overpricing but it remains rewarding for sellers who adapt.

What to Watch Going Forward

Looking ahead, several factors will shape the next phase of the market:

1. Inflation trends and how quickly they move toward the Bank of Canada’s target range.

2. Timing of the first rate cut, which could unlock sidelined buyer demand.

3. Spring inventory levels, particularly in family-oriented neighbourhoods and entry-level price bands.

4. Employment stability, which underpins buyer confidence more than headlines alone.

A gradual thaw, not a surge, is the most realistic expectation.

Final Thoughts

The BC housing market is transitioning from volatility to stability. While affordability challenges remain real, the combination of steady rates, improving selection, and more balanced negotiations has created one of the most rational buying and selling environments we’ve seen in years.

Whether you are considering a move now or planning for the months ahead, strategy matters more than timing headlines. A clear plan, local insight, and disciplined decision-making are the differentiators in today’s market.

If you’d like a more localized breakdown for your neighbourhood or guidance on how these trends impact your specific situation - reach out to the Ian Iacovitti of Coastal Key Homes anytime.

✅ If BoC Cuts Rates (or Signals More Cuts)

• More affordable mortgages & increased buying power: Lower rates generally reduce the cost of borrowing, meaning more people can afford larger homes or better qualify with tighter budgets.
  

• Stimulated buyer demand: especially among first-time buyers and “on-the-sideline” buyers — Many potential buyers have been waiting for rates to drop before re-entering the market; a January-renewed rate slide could “unlock” that pent-up demand.

• Potential rebound in resale activity: Lower borrowing costs tend to encourage more people to list, buy, and transact, tightening supply and pushing prices upward over time.

• Refinancing appetite among existing homeowners: Those on variable-rate mortgages (or nearing renewal) might see improved monthly payments, which can free up disposable income or enable upgrades.

⚠️ If BoC Holds Rates (or Signals Pause)

• Affordability remains tight — limited boost to demand: Without a rate cut, higher mortgage costs may continue to suppress buyer activity, especially among people already feeling stretched.
  

• Potential stability in prices, but slow market movement: The real estate market might see a gradual recovery, but perhaps without a sharp rebound; transactions may remain cautious while buyers wait for clearer signals.

• Continued pressure on renewals and first-time buyers: Those needing financing soon may still struggle to qualify or be forced to stretch budgets.

In short: A favorable BoC decision on December 10 could light a spark under Canada’s real estate market but a decision to stay put would likely result in a slower, more cautious trajectory.

🔧 How You Can Prepare YOUR Home (or Buying Strategy) Ahead of December 10

Given the uncertainty — but the possibility of meaningful change — now is a good time to prepare so you’re positioned to act quickly once the decision drops. Here are proactive steps to consider:

• Review your financing strategy

• If you’re on a variable-rate mortgage: estimate how a potential rate cut could reduce your monthly payments.

• If you’re nearing a fixed-rate mortgage renewal: consider whether locking in sooner or waiting might benefit you.

• Talk to a mortgage advisor about refinancing options, especially if a cut happens right after the BoC announcement.

• If you’re selling or thinking of selling: get your house ready now

• Do routine maintenance, touch up paint, fix any visible flaws a well-presented homes tend to attract buyers quickly when demand rises.

• Consider modest, high-impact updates (e.g. fresh landscaping, minor interior upgrades, decluttering) to maximize appeal for prospective buyers.

• Study local comparable listings & prices now and anticipate what will happen when demand rises

• Keep an eye on recent sales and inventory levels in your area (especially in markets like Greater Vancouver / North Vancouver).

• Start mapping out realistic pricing vs. desirable listing price so you’re prepared when buyer interest picks up.

• If you’re buying — get pre-approved or at least pre-qualified

• Lock in pre-approval so you can act quickly if rates drop and inventory starts moving.

• Watch your debt-to-income ratio and credit profile now, having these ready increases your chances of securing favourable mortgage terms once rates change.

🧭 What It Means for 2026: A “Wait and See” Market But Opportunity Ahead

• For buyers: If rates drop, 2026 could offer a great window to enter the market with improved affordability — especially if you’ve been priced out before.

• For sellers: If you prepare now, you’ll be well-positioned to benefit from renewed demand and possibly stronger competition among buyers.

• For current homeowners: Refinancing or upgrading might become more attractive again, giving financial flexibility.

• For the market overall: A decisive BoC move could restart momentum but sustained gains will still depend on factors beyond rates: inventory levels, economic conditions, and lending policies

As 2025 draws to a close, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is showing unmistakable signs of slowing momentum. The cooler trend that emerged in October carried straight through November, bringing with it softer sales activity, longer days on market, and a continued recalibration between buyers and sellers.

While the final month of the year is historically quiet, this November paints a broader picture of a market where patience, realism, and strategic pricing are becoming essential.

Sales Continue to Lag Behind Last Year

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports 1,846 residential sales across the region in November 2025. That’s a 15.4% decline from the 2,181 sales posted in November 2024 and sits 20.6% below the 10-year seasonal average.

Chief economist Andrew Lis highlighted the shift in buyer and seller behaviour:

“As the year draws to a close, the data continues telling a story of a market with many buyers patiently waiting and sellers adjusting to market conditions not seen in years... Buyers and sellers are striking deals when their expectations are aligned and reflective of the current market, not the market of years ago.”

In other words, the market is doing what markets eventually do: correcting to reality.

Inventory Rises, Giving Buyers More Choice

November saw 3,674 new listings, nearly unchanged year-over-year and slightly above the long-term average. What’s more notable is overall inventory.

There are now 15,149 homes listed on the MLS®, which is a substantial 14.4% increase compared to last November and 36.3% above the 10-year seasonal average.

For buyers, this means more options, less competition, and more leverage in negotiations.
For sellers, it means pricing sharply and showcasing value matter more than ever.

Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio Suggests Softening Prices

The sales-to-active listings ratio (SALR) across all property types landed at 12.6% in November.

• Detached: 9.7%

• Attached: 13.6%

• Apartments: 14.8%

Historically:

• Below 12% → downward pressure on prices

• Above 20% → upward pressure

With ratios hovering near or slightly above the lower boundary, it’s no surprise prices have continued to soften.

Home Prices Edge Down Across Most Segments

The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver now sits at $1,123,700, representing:

• 3.9% decrease year-over-year

• 0.3% decrease from October

Breaking down by property type:

Detached Homes

• Sales: 541 (↓13.6% YoY)

• Benchmark price: $1,900,600

  • ↓4.3% YoY

  • ↓0.4% MoM

Detached remains the segment feeling the most downward pressure as higher-price inventory sits longer.

Townhomes / Attached

• Sales: 350 (↓22.4% YoY)

• Benchmark price: $1,065,600

  • ↓4.4% YoY

  • ↑0.1% MoM

Attached homes remain relatively resilient, benefiting from buyers who have stepped down from the detached market due to borrowing constraints.

Condos / Apartments

• Sales: 945 (↓13.2% YoY)

• Benchmark price: $714,300

  • ↓5.2% YoY

  • ↓0.2% MoM

Condos continue to be the most active segment, but price softness suggests buyers are still approaching cautiously.

What’s Driving the Market?

Two main forces continue shaping the late-2025 landscape:

1. Higher Borrowing Costs Stabilizing

With interest rates holding steady — and no clear indication of near-term cuts — affordability remains the primary challenge for many would-be buyers. This keeps demand muted despite healthy inventory.

2. Shifting Buyer Sentiment

After years of intense bidding, record prices, and frantic market conditions, many buyers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach. As Lis notes, any significant revival in demand will depend on a notable change in buyer psychology.

What to Expect Heading into 2026

December is traditionally quiet, and the current trajectory suggests a calm end to a year marked by uncertainty.

Softer prices, healthy inventory, and cautious buyer activity will likely define the early months of 2026 — unless a major shift in rates or sentiment ignites demand.

For buyers, this could be a rare window of opportunity.
For sellers, preparation, pricing accuracy, and presentation are more critical than ever.

As we step into a brand-new year, all of us at Coastal Key Homes want to take a moment to wish you a Happy New Year and extend our sincere thanks for being part of our community.

The start of a new year is always an opportunity to pause, reflect, and look ahead with intention. Whether 2025 was a year of big milestones, careful planning, or simply putting down stronger roots, we’re grateful to have been part of your journey - whether through conversations, guidance, or helping you navigate the Lower Mainland real estate market.

Looking Ahead

The year ahead brings fresh possibilities. For some, that may mean exploring homeownership for the first time. For others, it could be upsizing, downsizing, investing, or simply staying informed as the market evolves. Whatever your goals, our commitment remains the same:

We aim to provide clear guidance, honest insight, and a client-first approach, without pressure or noise.

At Coastal Key Homes, we believe real estate is more than transactions. It’s about long-term planning, lifestyle alignment, and making confident decisions that support where you want to be in the years ahead.

Thank You for Your Trust

We’re incredibly grateful to our clients, partners, friends, and neighbours who continue to trust us with one of life’s biggest decisions. Your referrals, support, and conversations mean more than you know.

As we move into the new year, we look forward to continuing to serve the Lower Mainland with integrity, local expertise, and a coastal perspective that values both quality of life and smart decision-making.

From our team to you and your family!

wishing you health, happiness, and success in the year ahead.

Warm regards,
Coastal Key Homes

By Ian Joseph Iacovitti, REALTOR® at Coastal Key Homes

Buying a home in Vancouver is a major milestone. With some of the highest real estate prices in Canada, one of the first questions buyers ask is:

“How much home can I actually afford in Vancouver?”

The truth is that affordability in this city looks different depending on your income, down payment, lifestyle, and long term goals. This guide breaks down the key factors and provides three Vancouver specific affordability scenarios to help you understand where you might fit.

1. The Three Pillars of Affordability

Income

Lenders evaluate how much you can borrow using two ratios:

• GDS: Housing costs under 39 percent of income

• TDS: Total debts under 44 percent of income

These are strict rules that determine your maximum mortgage amount.

Down Payment Requirements

• Up to 500K: 5 percent

• 500K to 1M: 10 percent on the portion above 500K

• Over 1M: 20 percent minimum (required)

Most Vancouver homes are over 1M, so the 20 percent minimum is common.

Debts and Monthly Expenses

Student loans, car payments, lines of credit, and credit cards reduce your borrowing power. A single 500 dollar car payment can reduce mortgage eligibility by around 70,000 to 100,000 dollars.

2. Vancouver Specific Affordability Considerations

High Price Points by Property Type

• Entry level condos: high 400s to 600s in suburbs, 650K and up in Vancouver

• Townhomes: 900K to 1.4M

• Detached homes: often 1.8M to 2.5M or higher

The Federal Stress Test

Lenders must qualify buyers at the higher of

• contract rate plus 2 percent, or

• 5.25 percent

This reduces the maximum mortgage buyers can access.

Strata Fees

Strata fees count toward GDS and TDS. A 450 dollar strata fee can reduce qualification by around 80,000 dollars.

3. Vancouver Affordability Scenarios

Below are three common price points based on what buyers typically target in Metro Vancouver.

Scenario 1: The $500,000 Budget

Typical buyer: First time buyers, singles, young couples, or investors.

What you can expect:

• Studio or one bedroom condo

• Suburban markets or select neighbourhoods in Burnaby, New Westminster, Surrey, Coquitlam

• Older buildings in Vancouver East may occasionally offer opportunities near this range

Typical required income:

• 85,000 to 110,000 dollars household income

• Down payment of 25,000 to 35,000 dollars

Key considerations:

• Strata fees play a larger role at this price point

• Competition can be high for well maintained units

• Great entry point for building long term equity

Scenario 2: The $1,000,000 Budget

Typical buyer: Young families, move up buyers, or professionals seeking more space.

What you can expect:

• Larger two bedroom condos

• Newer one bedroom plus den units in central Vancouver neighbourhoods

• Townhomes in Burnaby, North Vancouver, or Tri Cities

• Select older detached homes in further suburbs

Typical required income:

• 160,000 to 200,000 dollars household income

• Down payment of 75,000 to 200,000 dollars depending on whether price falls under the insured structure

Key considerations:

• At or near 1M you may need nearly 20 percent down depending on lender guidelines

• Ideal range for growing households seeking both convenience and future appreciation

Scenario 3: The $2,000,000 Budget

Typical buyer: Established families, professionals, or those transitioning from a condo to a long term primary residence.

What you can expect:

• Detached homes in Vancouver East and parts of Vancouver West

• Newer luxury townhomes in premium neighbourhoods

• Well updated homes in North Vancouver, Burnaby North, and Port Moody

Typical required income:

• 300,000 to 360,000 dollars household income

• Minimum 400,000 dollar down payment

Key considerations:

• A 2M purchase is highly sensitive to interest rates

• Strong lifestyle planning is essential to maintain comfort

• This range offers long term stability and excellent appreciation potential

4. A Helpful Rule of Thumb for Vancouver Buyers

Most buyers qualify for approximately 4 to 5 times their household income.

This can vary depending on interest rates, debts, down payment, and property type. For the most accurate number, a personalized calculation is essential.

5. Should You Buy at Your Maximum Approval?

In most cases, no.
Vancouver buyers often qualify for more than they feel comfortable spending. Interest rate changes, rising strata fees, and lifestyle needs make it wise to target 80 to 90 percent of your maximum approval amount.

Ready to Understand Your Real Affordability in Vancouver?

Contact Coastal Key Homes to get started.

📩 Email: Ian.Iacovitti@gmail.com
📞 Call or Text: 778-836-8965

Whether you are exploring your first condo or planning a move into a long term family home, Coastal Key Homes will guide you through every step with clarity and confidence

TL;DR

• Sales activity in Metro Vancouver is softer vs. last year, and inventory remains elevated this means buyers have more choice and negotiating power in many segments.

• The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.25% on Oct 29, 2025 (second straight cut), which is easing borrowing costs and should support buyer demand into 2026.

• The federal government’s Budget 2025 proposes eliminating the Underused Housing Tax (UHT)/“underused home” filing/tax for 2025 onward - this reduces ownership costs for certain owners and may slightly affect investor sentiment.

• Prediction heading into 2026: mortgage-rate relief + pent-up demand → gradual increase in buyer activity and price stabilisation or modest gains in many Metro Vancouver submarkets, but pockets of weakness (esp. some condo segments) will persist while affordability constrains stronger rebounds.

1) What happened in October to November 2025

Sales & inventory: Greater Vancouver saw materially lower sales in October vs. last year and below the 10-year seasonal average, that soft demand combined with a larger pool of listings gives buyers leverage, reduces frenzy bidding, and lengthens days-on-market in many strata/condo pockets.

Prices: Average/benchmark prices are mixed by property type and neighbourhood. Detached homes remain relatively tighter, while apartments and attached homes showed larger year-over-year weakness in some areas thus creating a more divergent market than during the pandemic boom.

Policy & taxes: Budget 2025 proposes eliminating the Underused Housing Tax (UHT) beginning with the 2025 tax year, meaning affected owners won’t owe UHT and won’t need to file returns for 2025+. This removes one compliance/cost burden on certain owners (particularly some Canadian-owned corporations, partnerships and trusts) and could reduce a tail risk for some investors.

Rates: The Bank of Canada cut the policy rate to 2.25% on Oct 29, 2025 (a second consecutive cut), moving policy toward looser settings and reducing the immediate cost of borrowing. Markets have already reacted and fixed mortgage rates have edged lower, this means improved affordability modestly and likely encouraging more activity into 2026.

2) Why this matters to buyers and sellers

• Buyers: More inventory + lower rates = better negotiating position. If you’ve been waiting for more favourable conditions, 2026 looks promising to lock in lower mortgage rates and a wider selection — especially for condos and entry-level homes.

• Sellers: Pricing and marketing strategy matters more than ever. In hot micro-neighbourhoods you’ll still get strong demand; in mid/outer-market condos you may need to price competitively and stage/market aggressively to stand out.

• Investors: The proposed UHT removal reduces a holding-cost uncertainty for some owners, but fundamentals (rental demand, construction pipeline, mortgage availability) should drive returns. Expect more interest where rental fundamentals are tight.

3) Prediction for 2026 — what’s likely, what’s possible

Base case (most likely):

• Activity: Buyer activity increases through 2026 as mortgage rates fall further from their 2024–25 peaks and prospective purchasers respond to improved affordability. Transaction volumes recover toward more normal seasonal levels.

• Prices: Moderate upward pressure on prices overall, but uneven. Detached homes and desirable neighbourhoods likely show firmer pricing; condos and higher-inventory submarkets may see slower recoveries or only modest gains.

Upside scenario (less likely): Stronger-than-expected economic growth + more aggressive rate cuts → faster and broader price appreciation across all property types.

Downside scenario (risk): A setback in inflation data or labour markets forces the Bank back toward higher-for-longer rates, keeping mortgage rates elevated and capping demand (this would stall the recovery and prolong the buyer’s market dynamic).

4) Quick regional takeaways (where to watch)

• Downtown & condo-heavy strata: Watch listings and absorption closely - oversupply in some condo towers could keep pressure on prices. Good opportunities for owners to sell with solid staging and targeted marketing.

• Family neighbourhoods & detached: Demand is stickier; competition returns faster once rates fall. Good for sellers in these pockets.

• Rental market: Long-term rental shortage remains a structural theme in Metro Vancouver - well-located rentals and purpose-built units should remain attractive to investors.

  
  Ready to list or want a tailored home search? Contact Ian Joseph Iacovitti at Coastal Key Homes -  we’ll price it right and market it smart.
  
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