Vancouver real estate: October–November 2025 update and what to expect in 2026

TL;DR

• Sales activity in Metro Vancouver is softer vs. last year, and inventory remains elevated this means buyers have more choice and negotiating power in many segments.

• The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.25% on Oct 29, 2025 (second straight cut), which is easing borrowing costs and should support buyer demand into 2026.

• The federal government’s Budget 2025 proposes eliminating the Underused Housing Tax (UHT)/“underused home” filing/tax for 2025 onward - this reduces ownership costs for certain owners and may slightly affect investor sentiment.

• Prediction heading into 2026: mortgage-rate relief + pent-up demand → gradual increase in buyer activity and price stabilisation or modest gains in many Metro Vancouver submarkets, but pockets of weakness (esp. some condo segments) will persist while affordability constrains stronger rebounds.

1) What happened in October to November 2025

Sales & inventory: Greater Vancouver saw materially lower sales in October vs. last year and below the 10-year seasonal average, that soft demand combined with a larger pool of listings gives buyers leverage, reduces frenzy bidding, and lengthens days-on-market in many strata/condo pockets.

Prices: Average/benchmark prices are mixed by property type and neighbourhood. Detached homes remain relatively tighter, while apartments and attached homes showed larger year-over-year weakness in some areas thus creating a more divergent market than during the pandemic boom.

Policy & taxes: Budget 2025 proposes eliminating the Underused Housing Tax (UHT) beginning with the 2025 tax year, meaning affected owners won’t owe UHT and won’t need to file returns for 2025+. This removes one compliance/cost burden on certain owners (particularly some Canadian-owned corporations, partnerships and trusts) and could reduce a tail risk for some investors.

Rates: The Bank of Canada cut the policy rate to 2.25% on Oct 29, 2025 (a second consecutive cut), moving policy toward looser settings and reducing the immediate cost of borrowing. Markets have already reacted and fixed mortgage rates have edged lower, this means improved affordability modestly and likely encouraging more activity into 2026.

2) Why this matters to buyers and sellers

• Buyers: More inventory + lower rates = better negotiating position. If you’ve been waiting for more favourable conditions, 2026 looks promising to lock in lower mortgage rates and a wider selection — especially for condos and entry-level homes.

• Sellers: Pricing and marketing strategy matters more than ever. In hot micro-neighbourhoods you’ll still get strong demand; in mid/outer-market condos you may need to price competitively and stage/market aggressively to stand out.

• Investors: The proposed UHT removal reduces a holding-cost uncertainty for some owners, but fundamentals (rental demand, construction pipeline, mortgage availability) should drive returns. Expect more interest where rental fundamentals are tight.

3) Prediction for 2026 — what’s likely, what’s possible

Base case (most likely):

• Activity: Buyer activity increases through 2026 as mortgage rates fall further from their 2024–25 peaks and prospective purchasers respond to improved affordability. Transaction volumes recover toward more normal seasonal levels.

• Prices: Moderate upward pressure on prices overall, but uneven. Detached homes and desirable neighbourhoods likely show firmer pricing; condos and higher-inventory submarkets may see slower recoveries or only modest gains.

Upside scenario (less likely): Stronger-than-expected economic growth + more aggressive rate cuts → faster and broader price appreciation across all property types.

Downside scenario (risk): A setback in inflation data or labour markets forces the Bank back toward higher-for-longer rates, keeping mortgage rates elevated and capping demand (this would stall the recovery and prolong the buyer’s market dynamic).

4) Quick regional takeaways (where to watch)

• Downtown & condo-heavy strata: Watch listings and absorption closely - oversupply in some condo towers could keep pressure on prices. Good opportunities for owners to sell with solid staging and targeted marketing.

• Family neighbourhoods & detached: Demand is stickier; competition returns faster once rates fall. Good for sellers in these pockets.

• Rental market: Long-term rental shortage remains a structural theme in Metro Vancouver - well-located rentals and purpose-built units should remain attractive to investors.

  
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